Great Depression II – It Can’t Happen to Us, Can It? – Republished from May 2008 – with Addendum

Webster’s defines complacency as “1.satisfaction or contentment 2. smug self-satisfaction” There is probably not a better word to describe the current state of perception with regard to economic and financial malady. I had an interesting conversation the other night about exactly this topic and the individual I was speaking with had an overriding belief that we cannot suffer economically simply because the current generation is not prepared to deal with it. While I certainly agree with the latter assertion, the former continues to baffle me. I am certainly not prepared to deal with a lengthy hospital stay as the result of a horrific car crash, but that alone doesn’t cloak me in immunity from having an accident. The reasoning is so broken and flawed, yet it is often all we get in terms of a perception of what is going on.

This disconnect begets a discussion of why exactly it is that society has chosen to believe itself to be immune from bad things. It is odd in itself that when you talk to individuals, they seem to be acutely aware of many of the challenges facing us, but when you put all the individuals together and create a society, we act as though the party will indeed last forever. We are certainly dealing with a situation in which the intelligence of the whole is by far less than the sum of all its parts. Here’s a little bit of déjà vu for you, compliments of Wikipedia:

“In the 1920s, Americans consumers and businesses relied on cheap credit, the former to purchase consumer goods such as automobiles and furniture and the later for capital investment to increase production. This fueled strong short-term growth but created consumer and commercial debt. People and businesses who were deeply in debt when price deflation occurred or demand for their product decreased often risked default. Many drastically cut current spending to keep up time payments, thus lowering demand for new products. Businesses began to fail as construction work and factory orders plunged.”

Sound familiar anyone? See any price deflation going on? The Wilshire 5000 has only lost about 2.5 TRILLION dollars in value in the last two months or so. What about the loss in home equity? Another trillion or two? Who knows, but I think you get the point. We are seeing almost to the final utterance the same play we saw unfold in 1929. Were those folks any more prepared for the Great Depression than we are today? I’d argue that while they were perhaps a bit better equipped to provide for their own sustenance, that American society in the 1920’s was as complacent as we are today. When the realization of history’s coup de grace hits, we will be caught as unaware as our ancestors were back in 1929.

Here are some other examples of what Alan Greenspan likes to call ‘irrational exuberance’ in the 1920’s:

“We will not have any more crashes in our time.”

John Maynard Keynes in 1927 (The authenticity of this one is a little suspect) DOW ~ 175

“There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity.”

Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928 – DOW ~ 200

“There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash.” – Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist, New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929 – DOW ~ 375

“All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed… and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S.” – President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933 – DOW ~ 65

Tuesday morning we received news that according to the Institute of Supply Management, the service portion of our economy underwent a significant contraction during the month of December. This is alarming given the fact that December is normally one of the busiest times of the year. Even still, a trip past the local mall provides a busy scene. People are streaming in and out, carrying boxes and bags of imported trinkets to their imported cars. They will then use imported gasoline to drive to their home, the mortgage of which is likely to be owned by a foreign investor. Yet the average American citizen sees nothing wrong with this picture. Or could it be that they don’t even see the picture at all? The media has certainly been playing the role of absentee informant in recent years, choosing to focus on such insipid topics as Britney Spears’ latest rehab stint rather than the important business at hand.

Here now, are some quotes from this generation’s 1929..in 2007 and 2008:

“It is encouraging that inflation expectations appear to be contained,” Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke – Testimony to Congress – March 28 th , 2007 – DOW ~ 12,500, Headline CPI-U ~ 2.8% Y/Y

“As I think you know, I believe very strongly that a strong dollar is in our nation’s interest, and I’m a big believer in currencies being set in a competitive, open marketplace,” – Henry Paulson – Secretary of the Treasury – USDX ~ 81.50

““We are making history. What has passed the Congress in record time is a gift to the middle class and those who aspire to it in our country.” House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on the $168 Billion tax ‘rebate’ while the middle class is spending their Wal-Mart Christmas gift cards on food and other necessities.

They’re making history all right. Too bad it will end up being the WRONG kind. How can we ever hope to focus the population on the urgency of our current predicament when our leaders are willing to make it worse by handing our freebies, bailing out those who willingly make poor investment choices and telling us everything can be ‘free’ if we’ll only pull their lever on election day?

Or am I putting the cart in front of the horse? Perhaps a contrarian opinion might be that our leaders are giving the public exactly what it wants. In either case, I am quite certain that our state of unpreparedness will not constitute a free pass from the negative effects of a recession or a retraction of any of the financial excesses we’ve enjoyed over the past few decades.

Addendum – June 2023

Most people today don’t even remember Hank Paulson – or his ridiculous statements regarding the US Dollar. If a strong dollar was truly in our national interest, then we have no national interest left thanks to those fine, unaccountable feathered friends at the not-so-USFed. Poor Hank was like a financial piñata – no matter how many hits he took for this grossly erroneous statement, he kept right on spilling out candy.

15 years later and only the names have changed. The vocabulary-challenged Paulson is long gone, replaced by less than erudite Janet Yellen. Evidently one of the requirements of a Treasury Secretary or a not-so-USFed Chairman is to be able to speak for an hour and say absolutely nothing. Jay Powell is definitely at a disadvantage; he actually tries to explain things.

Economics isn’t rocket science. Or anywhere close. It’s a rather simple topic to understand. It is made complex by institutions who benefit when the population is clueless. When it comes to obfuscation, most policymakers get a AAA – ironically the same grade assigned to those worthless MBS back in the heydays of 2005-2007.

What Exactly is Neel Kashkari Trying to Accomplish? – My Two Cents

Neel Kashkari is hardly a household name. We’d speculate that most people wouldn’t recognize it. Neel was the Goldman Sachs alum who was hand-picked by Hank “A Strong Dollar is in the National Interest” Paulson back in 2008 to handle the disbursement of the TARP bailout money. That’s the $750 billion bailout that was initially shot down by the House, but eventually passed a few days later after Paulson did some rather heavy handed and unapologetic arm-twisting.

We’re going to link up a couple of videos throughout as sort of a walk down memory lane. 2008 was, after all, a dozen years ago already.

Ok, so what? What does this have to do with Neel? Well, after the bailout was passed, an odd thing happened. Instead of being used to buy troubled assets, the money went right to the banks. Kashkari was grilled by then Rep. Dennis Kucinich about his activities. Kashkari had already mastered the thousand-yard stare while being grilled which immediately caught our attention. He’d been trained for this.

After the brewing scandal was snuffed out by further epic plunges in global financial indices, Kashkari was quietly taken off the scene and ran like a refugee to a cabin in the woods of Northern California. He would remain there until 2016 when he was called off the bench to head up the Minneapolis Fed. That really got our attention. From a cabin in the woods to an extremely high level position in one of the most corrupt enterprises man has ever known after spending more than a half dozen years in exile? We should be so lucky.

Unfortunately, that’s not where the saga ends. Lately Neel Kashkari has been going around the talk show circuit saying that the only way to save the USEconomy is by doing essentially a full lock down on the US. Again, we’ll post some link to videos. We think Kashkari’s words carry a bit more weight just because of his pedigree and prior experience in sticking it to the taxpayers of this crumbling nation. How does a lock down save the economy?

We have a theory and we’re going to lay it out. The graphic below shows the rather alarming – and rapid – departure from the USDollar from two of the biggest up and coming economic powers out there: Russia and China. There are other countries engaged in similar activity and Andy has spoken on Liberty Talk Radio about these events for several years.

The USDollar’s reserve currency status is gone. It was in serious jeopardy going into this year, but after the blowout federal deficit even the dimmest bulb can see there is no way and certainly no will to ever pay off the national debt. Hyperinflation might be a tactic and we’ll talk about that eventually as well, but countries are bailing. It should be noted that the US is sanctioning EVERY SINGLE ONE of these countries at this moment and urging allies to do the same.

Other tripe and banal reasons are given, but this is clearly a move to protect the Dollar as long as possible. The house of cards is shaking and is about to get blown away like the houses of the first two of the three little pigs.

So why the call for a lock down? We’ll use basic economics to lay out our theory. When global demand for dollars decreases, those dollars need to go somewhere. If countries are using other currencies for international trade, their FOREX reserves will be changed to reflect this. Simply put, they won’t need to keep as many dollars. And why buy USGovt debt? It pays next to nothing – well below even the most cooked levels of price inflation. And there’s the very real possibility of switching to negative yields – especially in the series of shorter maturities.

These unneeded, unwanted dollars are starting to come home. Add to that all the funny money that has been created by the not-so-USFed to ‘buy everything’ in sight to keep financial markets stable. There are no reserve requirements, so the banking level can create massive inflation from making new loans. This is why the NASDAQ and S&P500 are at record highs. The repatriated dollars are being poured into financial markets and blowing up all manner of bubbles.

What is also happening is that consumer price levels are starting to rise at frightening levels. The change from May to June was .5654%, and the change from June to July was .5867%. These are annualized rates of around 7%. The central bank’s ‘comfort zone’ ends around 2.5% annualized.

US CPI-U

Kashkari’s argument for a lock down now makes perfect sense. If America goes back to lock down, we’ll see consumer prices drop from lack of demand as was seen in March, April, and May. A lock down would hide the effects of all this funny money flowing back into the US.

Let’s fold into the mix our paper on Modern Monetary Theory from last summer. The first premise is that a central bank/government that acts as its own bank cannot go broke. It can print until the lights go out in Tennessee. BUT.. when consumer prices start to go up, the next step is raise taxes to pull money from the system. There have been quite a few articles talking about higher taxes. With real unemployment and underemployment where they are, does anyone think a tax increase would fly?

A lock down might not fly either, but any decrease in aggregate demand that Kashkari is able to squeeze from his bully pulpit is going to ‘help’ the situation. Note – it’s not going to help the average person. This is a move to protect a broken currency regime, the institution that brought it to fruition, and the total corruption of fiat currencies in general.

Keep in mind that the partial lockdowns from March through June caused a 33% contraction in GDP according to the USGovt. Our model showed a 43% contraction. Given that we use a totally different methodology, the difference isn’t surprising. Since the USGovt’s GDP model uses the purchase of finished goods rather than intermediate goods, we can say that aggregate demand fell by about a third in the second quarter. You can see in the chart above the impact that had on consumer prices. Kashkari and his ilk are looking for more of the same.

Another such drop in prices would enable them to repatriate even more dollars without it become too noticeable in the real economy. We might get Dow 30K, NASDAQ 14K and S&P500 4K, but that is the ‘good’ kind of price inflation. If consumer goods went up in proportionate amounts, there would be even more rioting than there is at present.

Why not just destroy the unused currency? Most of it is digital anyway. That’s the most common question we are expecting. It is very important to understand that true deflation doesn’t occur unless money is actually destroyed. Falling prices do not mean deflation. You can create a little deflation on your own if you pull all the ‘money’ from your bank account in cash, then set it on fire. Why would I do that, I can still use it!!! And that’s the answer. The repatriated dollars aren’t going to be destroyed because they can still be used. Not by Mr. and Mrs. Joe Average, but by the banking system.

The next step in this decoupling process is for major trading partners to start requiring the US to settle transactions in some other currency or possibly even gold. Make no mistake, that is why this campaign of sanctions and threats of military action are in place against countries like Venezuela and Syria. When in doubt, follow the money. Forget the terrorism for a minute and follow the money. Nicholas Maduro and Bashar al-Assad are a clear and present danger to dollar hegemony because they’re stepping out of the dollar for international trade. Andy analyzed the situation in Syria almost 7 years ago and accurately predicted that Russia would not leave Syria hang out to dry. And even more importantly, WHY they wouldn’t leave Syria – and why they have yet to do so.

On a day the S&P500 recouped ALL of its losses due to a global pandemic that the experts are telling us is going to only get worse, we can look at the above mechanism and understand exactly how all those gains took place. It is perhaps ironic that over the past few month the USDollar has struggled mightily – even against other fiat currencies backed by nothing but the never-ending stream of hot air from bankers the likes of Neel Kashkari.

Graham Mehl is a pseudonym. He is astonishingly bright, having received an MBA with highest honors from the Wharton Business School at the University of Pennsylvania. He has also worked as a policy analyst for several hedge funds and has consulted for several central banks. Among his research interests are finding more reliable measurements of economic activity than those currently available to the investing public using econometric modeling and collaborating on the development of economic educational tools.

Andy Sutton is a research and freelance Economist. He received international honors for his work in economics at the graduate level and currently teaches high school business. Among his current research work is identifying the line in the sand where economies crumble due to extraneous debt through the use of econometric modeling with constant reflection of economic history. His focus is also educating young people about the science of Economics using an evidence-based approach

A Repeat of 2010 in the Works?

Andy’s Notes: During 2010, the US Consumer paid down a significant amount of debt. It scared the moneychangers quite magnificently. In an fractional reserve, fiat monetary system, ‘growth’ comes at least in part by inflation of the money supply and the subsequent effect on prices. One of the biggest ways monetary inflation occurs is when money is placed on deposit at a bank and nearly all of that money is then lent out by the bank – at interest. Every loan increases the money supply. When loans stop?

The summer data will be very interesting to say the least. Keep in mind that this paydown happened with the federal government handing out cash – again. It could very well be that in 2020, much like 2007, the ‘stimulus’ money went to help repair balance sheets rather than to accumulate more stuff.

Sutton


source: tradingeconomics.com

The US/EU on the Brink of Bankruptcy – von Greyerz

Note: This column, while deemed relevant was written by a third-party author. The views, opinions, and content are attributable to the author, not the Institute for Economic Awareness.

Most people don’t understand the cause of hyperinflation. Many argue that we can’t get hyperinflation since asset prices are now under pressure and there is no demand led inflation as most people currently have very little money. 

What few people understand is that hyperinflation is a currency driven event. It doesn’t arise as a result of prices going up. Instead hyperinflation comes from the value of the currency imploding. In every case of hyperinflation in history, it is the collapse of the currency that is the cause. So what leads to the currency collapsing. Well, exactly what is happening now around the world, namely unlimited money printing and credit creation. Led by the Fed and the ECB, the whole world is now extending trillions in loans, subsidies and guarantees to companies and individuals. Government deficits are now surging as tax revenues collapse and expenditures increase rapidly. So governments will also need to print money to finance their galloping deficits. The inevitable outcome will be bankruptcy although few nations will admit it. 

US DEBT DOUBLES EVERY 8 YEARS

I produced the debt chart below the first time at the end of 2017 when Trump was elected president. I forecast then that US debt would reach $28 trillion by the end of 2021 and double by 2028 to $40 trillion. These kind of debt increases seemed incredible at the time. But very few people study history and learn from the past. 

usa-debt

All we need to do is to go back to 1981 when Reagan became president. Since 1981 US Federal debt has on average doubled every 8 years, without fail. Obama doubled debt during his reign from $10 to $20 trillion. Thus, it was totally in line with history that the US debt would be $40 trillion 8 years later, in 2025. 

Until a couple of months ago, it seemed totally impossible to reach these high debt levels.  But today it looks like we could exceed those figures by a big margin, especially the 2025 one of $40T. I am not surprised. Because when you make these forecasts you know that there are always unforeseen events that will occur to fulfil them. And the end of the biggest asset and debt bubble in history had to end with an unexpected event.

The bottom part of the graph above shows US tax revenue. It was $0.6T in 1981. Currently it is $3.4T. With the present situation in the US, it is likely that tax revenue will collapse, thus increasing the deficit further. But even at the current level of $3.4T, tax revenue has gone up less than 6X since 1981 whilst debt has gone up 31X. 

As the banking system comes under pressure with debt defaults and imploding asset prices together with the $2Q derivatives going up in smoke, the US will be looking at an economic and social situation which is terrifying.

With falling tax revenues and galloping debt and deficit, the US is clearly on the way to default and bankruptcy.

SO WE ARE LOOKING AT THE FINANCES OF A BANKRUPT STATE. No additional printing of worthless dollars will remedy the situation. All it will lead to is a collapse of the dollar and an implosion of US debt. SO HYPERINFLATION HERE WE GO! 

But the US won’t be alone, since sadly the EU (ED-European Disunion) and many other nations will encounter a similar destiny. A bankrupt world is the inevitable result of the irresponsible actions of central banks and governments in the last 100 years. 

As Voltaire said already back in 1729:

PAPER MONEY EVENTUALLY REACHES ITS INTRINSIC VALUE – ZERO

The table below shows all the major currencies since the Fed was created in 1913. The straight line at 100 is Gold which represents stable purchasing power. In the last 100 years all major currencies have gone down 97-99% against gold. 

ALL MAJOR CURRENCIES HAVE LOST 82-87% THIS CENTURY

If we look at more recent periods, the table below shows the currencies’ decline since 1971 and 2000. Since 1971 they are all down 98-99%, except for the Swiss franc and Yen, thanks to Nixon closing the gold window. 

What few people realise is that since 2000 all the major currencies, except for the Swiss franc, are down 82-87%. This means that in real purchasing power, the currencies in industrialised countries have lost more than 4/5th of their value. So the final leg of the destruction of the current monetary system started 20 years ago. And from 2020 for the next 1-3 years, we will experience the final destruction down to Zero. 

MOST CURRENCIES WILL LOSE 100% IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS

But what we must remember is that final fall to the bottom involves a 100% fall from today in the value of the Dollar, Euro, Yen etc. It was always clear that the current monetary system would end like all the others in history since no currency has ever survived in tact with the exception of gold. And the world’s central banks have now started the process that will lead to the demise of paper money as we know it today. 

The facts and tables in this article are indisputable. The message couldn’t be clearer. 

Still, most people don’t get gold, since less than 0.5% of world financial assets are invested in physical gold.

As I have outlined in many articles, stocks, bonds and property will lose 90-99% in real terms, against gold, in the next few years. Many bonds will lose 100%. And paper money will lose 100%. 

LAST CHANCE TO SAVE YOUR WEALTH

Investors who don’t take immediate action are going to lose most of their investment assets. If you own property without debt, you can at least hold on to it but you will stop looking at it as an investment. But sadly most investors in conventional assets, like stocks and bonds, will be paralysed, hoping that Central Banks and Governments will save them yet one more time. But it won’t happen this time as more worthless debt cannot solve  a debt problem.  So I urge you to take action now. 

Stocks will very soon start the next downleg in the secular downturn that started a few weeks ago. So there is a last little window to get out at what will seem like fantastic prices just a few months from here. 

Gold has now started the acceleration phase and made new highs in most currencies except for in US dollars. The 2011 high of $1,920 will soon be reached on the way to much, much higher levels. 

The three biggest gold refiners in the world in the Swiss canton of Ticino are now operating again but only at 1/4 of normal capacity. So there will be very little physical gold available. Our company can still get hold of gold but the tight supply situation will lead to prices going up rapidly and spreads widening. 

Remember that you are not holding gold for illusory gains in worthless paper money. Instead, physical, and only physical, gold is life insurance against a collapsing world economy and monetary system. 

Egon von Greyerz
Founder and Managing Partner
Matterhorn Asset Management
Zurich, Switzerland
Phone: +41 44 213 62 45

Chart of the Day – US National Debt by the Year

Notes: Almost exactly 6 years to go from $5T to $6T. We’ll ignore the jump from $23T to $24T because of the emergency spending. We assert that the spending would have happened anyway, but omit it in the interests of full disclosure. The jump from $22T to $23T took only 8.5 months. The slope of the debt curve is increasing at nearly the square of the annual increase.

Economists love to talk about ‘escape velocity’ in terms of economic recovery. We’re going to inject that term into the debt discussion. By 2024, the Congressional budget office estimates the national debt will be at $36T – another $12 trillion over top of where we are now. So.. $12T in the next four years. In the previous four years, the growth was around $4.5T.

It doesn’t take a mathematician to figure out if we get to $36T by 2024, there is no going back. In all honesty, that ship has likely already sailed. Our planning needs to move into the next phase now. Where do we go from here? We’ll be addressing that, along with some pointers on general risk management in the weeks that follow.

Just one follow-up question – when was the last time you heard anyone talk about the infamous debt ceiling???? Something to think about during all this time we all have for contemplation.

Sutton/Mehl

**Chart compliments of CNS News**

US National Debt

Q&A Answers – 3/21/2020

Since we were unable to do Liberty Talk Radio again, I’m going to address the questions we received here. The chart below will be a point of reference for most of them.

The chart above shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average from approximately 1905. You’ll have to click to see the chart in detail and I apologize for that – it is hard to get a decent chart with that kind of timeline.

The first ‘peak’ if you can even call it that was the roaring 20s and the bursting of the speculative bubble in late 1929. The Dow would lose more than 75% of its value before the move ended.

The next events are pointed to as well. The main question people have is ‘How was the DJIA near 30,000 to begin with?’ It’s a good question. There are a couple of reasons. First is inflation (growth of the money supply). More money chasing after a relatively fixed set of goods produces higher prices, all else being equal. Let’s proceed through the timeline to get to an answer about Dow 30,000.

Inflation and the revocation of the Glass-Steagall Act allowed for the run-up and eventual blowup of the dot-com bubble. The fact that many of the dot -com firms never made a single penny in profits yet sold for hundreds of dollars a share contributed as well. We’d call this part a speculative bubble. Inflation put the money in the system to allow the bubble to reach the level it did.

After the 2002-03 recovery, the central banks (globally) began serious interference in markets, causing distortions and artificially low interest rates (aka cost of capital) that allowed the next bubble – the housing bubble to inflate. Again, more money in the system due to inflation and a lower cost to that money thanks to the central banks and voila! Boom.

If you thought that was dramatic, the federal reserve in the US and other central banks began something known as ‘quantitative easing’ or QE. This is a fancy term for printing money from thin air and injecting it into the financial system and economy. In the business we call it ‘hot money’ because it’s like a hot potato. It moves around very quickly. From 2009-2019, we had multiple opportunities for what is happening right now and each time, the central banks intervened with more hot money and you can see by the shape of the curve after 2009 how the slope increases dramatically.

This general shape of curve is consistent with monetary systems that are built on fractional reserve banking and that feature a unit of currency that isn’t backed by anything tangible. Until 1971, the USDollar was at least partially backed by gold. I didn’t mark the area, but if you look on the chart at where the curve really starts to accelerate upwards, that was right in the 1971 time frame.

There has been some speculation about fractional reserve monetary systems of late. The important thing to note is that this particular type of system allows for inflation (the creation of new money) when debt is incurred. A quick example is in order. I take 100 depreciated American dollars to the bank and deposit it. Joe Cristiano comes along and asks my bank for a loan, they will lend him up to around $90 of my deposit. However, the bank still owes me my $100 initial deposit. At this point, the money supply went from $100 to $190.

One of the often used misconceptions is that, therefore, when loans are repaid, that equals deflation (the destruction of money). It does not. Let’s use our above example. Joe repays his loan to the bank after 30 days. Let’s say they were very charitable and say they charged him 1% total interest for the 30-day loan. So, he would repay $90.90. Now, my initial $100 is still in there so the total is now $190.90. No deflation.

However, when people pay down loans instead of taking out more debt it does dramatically slow the rate of bank-created inflation. This happened during 2010. Governments don’t like this because they’ve invested a great deal of time convincing people that inflation is necessary for growth to occur. If the people won’t borrow, you can sure bet the governments will do it for them and that is exactly what took place in 2010.

A final thought. A few asked if what is going on would have happened if we didn’t have a global biologic event. As you can see by the chart above, we’ve been long overdue. The QE done by the federal reserve is unhealthy for the economy and if our economy was truly healthy, it wouldn’t need constant stimulus or massive federal, state, local, and personal deficits to function. The ‘solution’ for nearly 2 decades has been to print money and blow up bubbles. Put simply, at some point bubbles always burst and this most recent one was looking for its pin.

Sutton, Mehl – 3/21/2020

Andy Sutton Appears on Liberty Talk Radio

Andy’s Notes: A big “thank you” to Joe Cristiano and Liberty Talk Radio for having me on to discuss negative interest rates and the implications. We also had a chance to talk about other aspects of monetary policy and things you must know in an inverted yield curve / ZIRP environment. It will be 35 minutes well-spent if you listen.